by JeffBet |
Date of Publishing: 6 November 2024

After Gameweek 9 | 28^th October 2024

Premier League Supercomputer

The latest Premier League supercomputer by JeffBet projects Manchester United to finish in their worst position in 30 years, plus Wolves, Ipswich and Southampton being dropped into the Championship.

About

The model outputs three things,

The Predicted Table: This table represents the model’s prediction of the final standings at the end of the season. It incorporates any actual results that have occurred so far if any and predicts the exact scores for the remaining games to compile a final league table. Now has added Diff column which is the difference in position compared to last week’s table.

The Predicted Gameweek Results and Probabilities: These are the predicted results for each Gameweek, generated by the same model used to create the final predicted table. The probabilities for each match outcome (home win, draw, away win) are derived from simulating each game 10,000 times. This allows us to provide a percentage chance for each possible outcome of every match.

The Position Matrix: This matrix is generated by simulating the entire season 10,000 times. For each simulation, the code records where each team finishes in the table. These results are then converted into percentages, showing the probability of each team finishing in each position in the league. New is the simple Matrix, which is the same data but shown in a simpler way, so it gives the average position over 10,000 sims, title chance, UCL chance so (1^st to 4^th), UEL chance so (5^th – 6^th), ECL chance (7^th) then relegation chance.

Club Supercomputer: First is just to test how this works as a demo but Manchester United is included. They are club specific and so the clubs top scorer for example.

The Predicted Table

After Gameweek 9

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	diff
1	Manchester City	38	29	8	1	98	41	57	95	0
2	Arsenal	38	30	5	3	89	41	48	95	0
3	Liverpool	38	29	1	8	81	38	43	88	0
4	Chelsea	38	22	10	6	74	44	30	76	0
5	Aston Villa	38	19	10	9	67	53	14	67	3
6	Brighton	38	18	9	11	67	55	12	63	1
7	Newcastle Utd	38	18	6	14	58	56	2	60	-1
8	Tottenham	38	16	9	13	63	51	12	57	-3
9	Brentford	38	17	5	16	65	62	3	56	0
10	Nottingham Forest	38	15	9	14	50	51	-1	54	3
11	Bournemouth	38	15	8	15	49	51	-2	53	0
12	Manchester Utd	38	14	8	16	56	60	-4	50	-2
13	West Ham	38	15	5	18	59	67	-8	50	1
14	Fulham	38	13	8	17	57	59	-2	47	-2
15	Everton	38	10	7	21	42	66	-24	37	0
16	Crystal Palace	38	8	10	20	43	63	-20	34	0
17	Leicester City	38	8	5	25	43	78	-35	29	0
18	Wolves	38	5	9	24	44	80	-36	24	0
19	Ipswich Town	38	4	7	27	39	85	-46	19	0
20	Southampton	38	3	5	30	39	82	-43	14	0

The Predicted Gameweek Results and Probabilities

Gameweek: 10

Wk	Home	HomeGoals	AwayGoals	Away	Prob_Home_Win	Prob_Draw	Prob_Away_Win
10	Manchester Utd	2	3	Chelsea	31.6%	25.3%	43.2%
10	Southampton	2	2	Everton	27.4%	25.0%	47.6%
10	Liverpool	3	1	Brighton	66.0%	19.2%	14.8%
10	Tottenham	0	2	Aston Villa	40.5%	25.1%	34.4%
10	Wolves	2	2	Crystal Palace	32.9%	25.7%	41.4%
10	Nott’ham Forest	2	1	West Ham	45.4%	25.3%	29.3%
10	Newcastle Utd	2	2	Arsenal	27.4%	23.1%	49.5%
10	Fulham	3	1	Brentford	45.2%	24.9%	29.9%
10	Ipswich Town	2	1	Leicester City	29.3%	26.0%	44.7%
10	Bournemouth	0	0	Manchester City	13.6%	17.3%	69.1%

Scores and Probabilities are different things! The favourite does not win every game, so the ‘Supercomputer attempts to predict some upsets. Otherwise, Man City would win all 38 games in the Premier League…

The Position Matrix

After Gameweek 9

Cells that say 0.0% mean that there is less than 0.1% chance (<0.1%)

Last week

Cells that say 0.0% mean that there is less than 0.1% chance (<0.1%)

This Week

Club Supercomputer (Unchanged)

Manchester United

League finish prediction

As above

Cup predictions

FA Cup, EFL Cup, Europa League

Club top scorer prediction

Top 5

Player of the season prediction

Top 5

About the Author

Author: JeffBet

JeffBet is an online gambling company founded in 2022. Its product offerings are online casino, online slots, live dealer games, table games and sports betting. The organisation holds regulatory gambling licenses in the UK and Malta.

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